| Signup to this report here Wheat prices edged higher in Chicago and Paris after the USDA, in its monthly Wasde briefing, unexpectedly cut its forecast for US stocks of the grain at the close of 2024/25, and downgraded the EU harvest to a fresh 17-year low. Chicago wheat for March-25 stood up 0.2% in the immediate aftermath of the report, with Paris milling wheat for March-25 gaining 0.7%, and London wheat for May-25 bucked the trend, shedding 1.0% after uncovering resistance earlier at its 20-day moving average, and facing the headwind of strength in sterling versus the euro. Corn futures for March-25 gained 1.1% in midday deals in Chicago, after the USDA downgraded its forecast for US stocks of the grain by more than traders had forecast. Soybeans held on to gains of 0.4% for January-25 Chicago futures, while Paris rapeseed eased after the USDA lifted its forecast for EU stocks marginally on an increased import figure, upgraded by 150Kt to a record 6.85Mt on “larger exportable supplies in Ukraine”. Corn The USDA in the Wasde cut its forecast for US corn stocks at the close of 2024/25 by 5.0Mt to 44.2Mt, a markedly larger downgrade than traders had expected, and putting a small drawdown in inventories on the cards for the season. The revision reflected increases to demand estimates, both for US exports, “reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date”, and consumption in making ethanol. Data on grain crushings and ethanol output “imply corn used for ethanol during the September to November quarter was the highest since 2017”, the USDA said. The export forecast was raised by 3.8Mt to a four-year high of 62.9Mt. Among other changes to the world corn balance sheet, the USDA downgraded its forecast for Chinese corn imports again, this time by 2.0Mt to a five-year low of 14.0Mt. It cited “reduced Brazil trade”. Soybeans The Wasde offered no changes to the balance sheet for US soybeans, although trimming the forecast for US soyoil stocks on “Increased exports reflecting price competitiveness”. The US soyoil export forecast was hiked by nearly 230Kt, to 499Kt. The forecast for Argentina’s 2024/25 soybean harvest was raised by 1.0Mt to 52.0Mt, “on higher area”. Wheat The USDA unexpectedly downgraded its forecast for US wheat stocks at the close of this season, by 540Kt to 21.6Mt, although this still represents a build of 3.7Mt year on year. The revision factored in an upgrade of 560Kt to 23.1Mt, keeping it at a four-year high. The USDA highlighted “stronger-than-expected sales and shipments to East Asian markets” of US white wheat. The USDA also trimmed its forecast for EU wheat exports by 1.0Mt to 29.0Mt, taking the figure to a six-year low, as it downgraded again its forecast for the bloc’s all-wheat harvest, by 1.3Mt to a 17-year low of 121.3Mt. “The [EU] wheat harvest has been finished for months, but additional reductions have been made as recent data has revealed further evidence of the crop’s sub-par performance,” the USDA said, cutting its estimates for Belgium, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden. The forecast for Russian exports was also cut, by 1.0Mt to 47.0Mt, on the 11Mt “export quota announced for [the] latter half” of 2024/25.  Interested in learning more about our analysis and subscriptions? Contact us Looking for greater insights and advice on how to manage growing price volatility, get in touch Not yet subscribed? Get in touch |
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Graintab is a trading name of CRM Commodities Ltd (CRM Agri) which delivers independent agricultural commodity market research and advisory services. [www.crmagri.co.uk]
Graintab is a trading name of CRM Commodities Ltd (CRM Agri) which delivers independent agricultural commodity market research and advisory services. [www.crmagri.co.uk]
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- Weekly Grain Outlook
Weekly Grain Report Highlights • Wheat - Extent of funds’ short bets enhances upside price risk • Corn - Brazil, Ukraine, US offer hope of rebuild in supplies • Crop condition & weather— Australian conditions, US dryness - Weekly Oilseed Outlook
Highlights: • Rapeseed - Food use offers shields against oil market pressure • Soybeans - China ditches US origin for extra Brazilian beans • Crop Watch - Dryness in Ukraine, French wheat condition
