In December 2023, we published our 2024 outlook and forecasts. As another year draws to a close, its time to take a look at those forecasts and how accurate they were. Forecasts Review Firstly, we highlighted that geo politics would remain an important part of markets in 2024 and be a driver of high volatility, interest rates were expected to start to decline, although this has happened at a slower pace than many expected due to stagnant high inflation. Wheat – ”For 2024, we see potential for some price recovery as Russian supplies dwindle, diverting importers’ attention to other origins, where supplies are less plentiful.” Despite prices selling off in early 2024 as funds continued to sell in the despite tightening supply and demand balance sheets, this was short lived, and from late February lower Russian output prospects and reduced production in other major exporters led to prices rallying until June, to levels not seen since early 2023. Corn – ”With US sowings expected to fall markedly too, with current thinking of a figure more like 91-92M acres than the 94.9M acres planted this year, we foresee potential for corn prices to rebound somewhat in 2024.” This was accurate so far as the area of corn planted fell markedly to 90.75Mac, however the price did not rebound in 2024 as expected, ultimately prices traded broadly sideways finishing 2024 at a similar level to where they started. Funds continued to build a short position in early 2024 as South American prospects improved and interest rates remained higher for longer. Soybeans – ”For 2024, we foresee futures falling back below $13/Bu as the year progresses, with current prices suggesting sizeable US sowings, after what looks like being a 200Mt harvest in South America’s top two producers, Argentina and Brazil.” This forecast turned out to be accurate. Soybean prices tumbled through $13/bu in January and continued lower, ultimately ending the year below $10/bu as higher output from key exporters, coupled with weaker demand weighed. Rapeseed – ”Heading into 2024, we expect prices to hold close to current levels, for the first half. While Australia’s shipments, boosted by better-than-expected harvest, are amid their seasonally strong period and indeed got off to a flying, 385Kt start in October, Ukraine’s exportable supplies are running down.” Prices traded sideways through Q1 of 2024 before beginning to edge higher as surging palm oil prices forced wider vegetable oil prices higher and crop prospects for the likes of Ukraine and the EU diminished. Subscribers can read our 2025 outlook and forecasts Get in touch below to get further information about access to our analysis and forecasts in 2025. Seasons greetings and best wishes for 2025 from CRM Agri. Interested in learning more about our analysis and subscriptions? Contact us Looking for greater insights and advice on how to manage growing price volatility, get in touch |
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Graintab is a trading name of CRM Commodities Ltd (CRM Agri) which delivers independent agricultural commodity market research and advisory services. [www.crmagri.co.uk]
Graintab is a trading name of CRM Commodities Ltd (CRM Agri) which delivers independent agricultural commodity market research and advisory services. [www.crmagri.co.uk]
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