WASDE Overview
In what was a broadly bearish grain WASDE, markets have come under pressure due to increased North America grain production confidence, offsetting a cut to EU supplies.
Alongside the WASDE, crude oil was also down significantly today, Brent crude fell back below $100/Bbl.
Meanwhile, reports have detailed that the first 8 ships have arrived at Ukrainian ports since the closure of the Black Sea to export agricultural production out of the Danube.
WASDE Overview
Corn
On a global scale, projected ending stocks for 2022/23 were increased to 312.94Mt, up from 310.45Mt in June.
The major changes were to US corn, with beginning stocks increased to 38.35Mt (up from 37.71Mt) and production estimates also increased to 368.44Mt (up from 367.3Mt). As a result of the increased supply, ending stocks were raised to 37.33Mt, up from 35.55Mt in June in the US.
Projected Russian corn production was lowered by 1Mt to 14.5Mt, while EU production was also marginally trimmed by 250Kt to 68Mt, amid a projected reduction in consumption.
Wheat
Global wheat production estimates have been downwardly revised in this month’s USDA WASDE.
US production estimates were increased this month to 48.47Mt, up from 47.26Mt in June with ending stocks marginally increased. In Canada, production estimates were also up 1Mt to 34Mt, with an expected knock-on increase in exports.
Offsetting the US and Canadian production gains have been downward projections for EU wheat production, down 2Mt to 134.1Mt as ongoing dry weather lowered yield prospects primarily in Spain, Italy, and Germany.
Estimates for Ukraine were also trimmed, down 2Mt on a reduced area to 19.5Mt, while Russian production estimates were conservatively increased to 81.5Mt.
Production estimates for Argentina were also trimmed, down 0.5Mt.
Overall, the July WASDE tightened the global supply of wheat for 2022/23.
Soybeans
Following a cut to planted area estimates, US soybean production estimates were decreased to 122.61Mt, down from 126.28Mt in June, resulting in a cut to export projections and tighter ending stocks.
Estimates for production in Argentina for the 2021/22 season were increased, resulting in higher stocks being carried over into 2022/23, while a reduced export volume from Brazil also resulted in a marginally higher carry over stock projection.
Overall a broadly tighter outlook for global soybeans following cuts to US soy, but somewhat balanced with Chinese import demand projections trimmed to 98Mt.
Read the full WASDE here.