In December 2023, we published our 2024 outlook and forecasts. As another year draws to a close, its time to take a look at those forecasts and how accurate they were.

Wheat prices edged higher in Chicago and Paris after the USDA, in its monthly Wasde briefing, unexpectedly cut its forecast for US stocks of the grain at the close of 2024/25, and downgraded the EU harvest to a fresh 17-year low.

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For wheat, the Wasde was on the face of it mildly supportive to prices, cutting expectations for world stocks, including inventories held by major exporters.

Wheat futures renewed their decline as the USDA in its monthly Wasde crop report lifted its forecast for world stocks of the grain at the close of 2024/25 by 5.0Mt.

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Wheat prices dipped on Tuesday, despite the USDA in its monthly Wasde crop report cutting further its forecast for world carryout stocks in 2024/25.

The USDA’s May Wasde report is viewed as particularly important by the market, in issuing first full world crop supply and demand forecasts for the next season, in this case 2024/25.

The latest April USDA WASDE was broadly supportive for wheat and corn, with a marginal easing of global soybean supply and demand. However, while the soybean picture is for marginally eased global supplies, this is against a backdrop of minimal US stocks.

Overview of the March US Prospective Plantings report from the USDA

In the EU, barley prices have found, some, support after a poor 2023 harvest, which at 47.3Mt was the smallest in 12 years.

In the EU, barley prices have found, some, support after a poor 2023 harvest, which at 47.3Mt was the smallest in 12 years.

Initial thoughts and highlights from the February USDA Wasde report

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