| Wheat The US winter wheat harvest reached 17% complete by late last week, well behind the 15% long-term average, but making good progress from the 4% complete the week before. The crop condition scores for the remaining winter wheat increased by 1 percentage point week on week to 49% good and excellent. However, spring wheat remains the concern. Falling to just 27% good and excellent, US spring wheat fell by 10 percentage points week on week, with poor conditions across north and south Dakota alongside poor conditions in Washington. Although crop conditions fell, and spring wheat remains a concern, Managed Money funds reduced the number of long positions held, and for the first time since the start of April, increased the number of short positions held. Corn The USDA Crop Progress report showed 68% of the US corn crop in good and excellent condition, down another 4 percentage points from the previous week. Although crop conditions scores deteriorated, like with wheat, Managed Money reduced the number of long positions held and marginally increased the number of short contracts held. A reflection that markets are forward-looking encouraged by the recent beneficial rainfall. Soybeans US soybean condition scores fell 5 percentage points to 62% good and excellent as the dry weather continued to take its toll on US crops. Again, although crop conditions fell, the recent rainfall and improved forecasts are weighing on markets. The number of long positions held by Managed Money fell again last week, and the number of short positions increasing. What does this mean? Overall, speculative managed money positions reduced the number of long positions held across agricultural markets as harvest production confidence increases following recent rainfall. It is still early in US crop development terms, but crop conditions will soon become increasingly important. Read the full USDA report here |
