| While Thursday would normally be a key day for looking at US export sales, due to the US Memorial Day holiday, the data will be released tomorrow. Although the US export sales data has been delayed, there has been a noticeable absence of further large daily US-China corn sales. The speed of old crop exports will be closely monitored as the pace of exports will need to maintain an elevated pace to the end of the season in order for outstanding sales to become actual exports and potential old crop cancellations will be key. Remaining a key driver for markets has also been the weather, with a focus on the US. Spring wheat states are remaining without meaningful rainfall for the rest of the week and temperatures are increasing. What does this all mean? With China having been so critical for grain markets, there is a large focus on export sales and the potential demand for new crop US corn. China remains the wild card for next season and although early USDA estimates point to a 26MT demand in 2021/22, this remains a large grain market risk and uncertainty. While there is a lot of production and supply risk already priced into new crop grain markets, with low global stocks, good yields are needed for harvest 2021. Our views on what this means and outlook for prices is published in our weekly outlook |
